Intourist predicted stagnation of out coming tourism market in 2018
This was announced during the press-breakfast in Moscow by the Director General of Intourist tour operator Viktor Topolkaraev. According to analysts of the company, in 2018 on the background of such stagnation, organized internal tourism will increase up to 7%.
According to the forecast analysis conducted by Intourist specialists, the market of organized out coming tourism in Russia in 2018 will not demonstrate a significant increase in general, remaining “plus or minus at the level of last year”. In "Intourist" emphasize that these are preliminary estimates. At the same time, Intourist itself increased the volume of out coming tourism by 24%.
The largest increase in segment of organized tourism on the Russian market as a whole, according to Intourist analysts, is predicted for Turkey: the flow of tourists will increase by 15% compared to 2017 (in sales of Intourist - by 40%). If the forecast turns out to be true, Turkey will end 2018 with the result of 5.5 million tourists from Russia, “not reaching”, however, its goal of 6 million Russians.
High dynamics rates are also predicted for Tunisia: + 15% increase in tourist traffic on the direction as a whole and + 39% on a year-on-year basis (Intourist own sales). Again, if this forecast turns out to be true (590 thousand tourists from Russian Federation in 2018), Tunisia will practically return to the record 2016 after a decline last year.
“At the same time, we expect a decrease of out coming tourist traffic by 10% for all European destinations”, reported Viktor Topolkaraev.
The mass summer European destinations, which will demonstrate the largest decline in tourist arrivals from Russia, based on the Intourist forecast for 2018, are Greece (-10%) and Bulgaria (-20%). At the same time, these areas showed growth in sales of the tour operator itself: + 15% and + 5%, respectively.
Italy, according to Intourist, will show the result of last year (and growth in sales of the tour operator itself by 10%). Most likely, Montenegro, Spain and Croatia will also demonstrate a decrease in the volume of tourist traffic from Russia.
Viktor Topolkaraev spoke about the reasons for the recession on most summer out coming directions.
According to the head of Intourist, the early sales of the summer season - 2018 for all mass tour operators exceeded the figures of 2017 by several times. This determined the growth of the declared volume of flight programs for all major players. Since May, sales on the market have dropped and the main factors of it are the weakening of ruble and the subsequent increase of the price of tours.
“By August, sales began to return to normal indicators, but the next jump of euro and dollar increased again the price of tours. In addition, the season was complicated by the lack of special offers for Russia against the background of the growth of European tourist traffic.
According to Intourist, for 2018 season the highest increase of the average price was demonstrated by Bulgaria (+ 12% to the price of 2017), Montenegro (+ 14%) and Greece (+ 7%).
Yury Mishchenko, graduated from Moscow Institute of Foreign Languages, has more than 15 years experience in tourism and travel. Working both in tour operator company as destination manager, and in travel agency as sales manager, he is focused on analysis of Russian tour operators’ daily routine. Recently, Yury works in Baginet Marketing and Sales Agency.